The chances of the iranian opposition now bringing down the regime on the streets now are very slim, even if they went on head to head battle with the security forces. Even though 17 people have lost their lives to the cause and with hundreds injured filling up the hospitals, this is just the tip of the iceberg in terms of the amount of force that the authorities could use to quell such an uprising. To add to that, the security forces have shown no sign of wavering in their commitment to stop the protesters, completely and utterly crushing any resistance they encounter. The warnings have been getting louder than there will be absolutely no tolerance for those violating the band on demonstrations and the signs are that all major opposition leaders including presidential candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi are going to be arrested sooner or later. Probably sooner if the protest grow stronger. In the immediate aftermath of the election, there were a million protestors on the streets, over the last two weeks it has now dwindled to just three thousand now, and although the numbers are less the opposition has not gotten any weaker.
Despite this drop in the numbers of protesters, it appears as if the opposition is gearing for a long term campaign against the president. The opposition has very strong ties in both the civil society and deep within the regime, leading some to believe that the strength of the protests were meant to show the popular support that it has and that their demands cannot be ignored for very long.
Ultimately it looks they will be pushing for some form of compromise, as it is going to be very difficult for the regime to face the coming challenges without the support of the people, who support the opposition by a vast majority. The end game is going to be how much either party is willing to give up in this compromise, this could play out over the next weeks or even the next few months but despite the dropping voracity of the protests, this isn’t over.
